הערכת המספר הנדרש של רופאים גריאטריים בישראל בין השנים 2000-2020

Translated title of the contribution: Estimating the need for geriatricians in Israel 2000-2020

יאן פרס, מרק קלרפילד

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

5 Scopus citations

Abstract

Background: Despite the growth in the absolute number of Israel's elderly population, no previous estimate has been published on the number of geriatricians required, either at present or for the next 20 years. Objective: To offer a conservative estimate of the number of geriatricians required today, with projections to the year 2020. Methods: We utilized two separate models. The first estimated need via an extrapolation from an American model. The second utilized a "made in Israel" formula relating to the need for geriatric assessment, based on an estimate of the number of frail elderly in Israel. Results: Today there are approximately 170 practicing geriatricians in Israel. Our models conservatively estimated already in the year 2000 the need for a minimum of 114 up to 522 geriatricians by 2010 the numbers will reach a minimum of 118 to 604 and by the year 2020, from 138 to 854. These determinations are all lower than previous estimates made by the Ministry of Health. Conclusions: At present, the Israeli health system is not prepared to look after the elderly in the best possible way. There is already a shortage of geriatricians and, without immediate attention to this problem, this gap will grow significantly in the next twenty years.
Translated title of the contributionEstimating the need for geriatricians in Israel 2000-2020
Original languageHebrew
Pages (from-to)120-124
Number of pages5
Journalהרפואה
Volume147
Issue number2
StatePublished - Feb 2008

Keywords

  • Future care of the elderly
  • Geriatricians
  • Medical manpower

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General Medicine

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