A better way to forecast

Uriel Haran, Don A. Moore

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

5 Scopus citations

Abstract

Every business decision depends on making a forecast of the consequences of the decision. Although most organizations do forecasting, most do so badly. They ask either for a point prediction-a single "best guess" forecast, when everyone knows that this is an oversimplification of the truth, or for a simple range forecast, which is likely to result in biased predictions more often than not. In this article, the authors propose a better approach, one that takes seriously the uncertainty in forecasting and the most common errors in the way people think about this uncertainty.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)5-15
Number of pages11
JournalCalifornia Management Review
Volume57
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 Nov 2014

Keywords

  • Decision Making
  • Forecasting
  • Human Behavior

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Strategy and Management

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