A Dialysis Need-Forecasting Model: A Retrospective Evaluation

A model to forecast the need for dialysis beds, currently used by the Massachusetts Department of Public Health (DPH), is evaluated after ten years of availability and two years of formal use. The model was originally developed in 1972 to accommo date some informal planning needs of dialysis providers in Massachusetts. In 1978 the model was formally adopted by the DPH for its end stage renal disease planning. The model was designed to be and proved to be flexible in accommodating parameters and inputs specific to a given region, changes due to medical and techno logical innovations, and the acquisition of new data. This paper evaluates the model in terms of its accuracy, its financial impact, and the impact it has had on the allocation of dialysis resources in Massachusetts. The usefulness of the model as a planning tool is evaluated along several criteria. Two case studies are presented to illustrate how the model has been used to evaluate requests for dialysis facility development or expansion. (Med Decis Making 3:489-500, 1983).