TY - JOUR
T1 - A less data demanding ecophysiological niche modeling approach for mammals with comparison to conventional correlative niche modeling
AU - Tourinho, Luara
AU - Sinervo, Barry
AU - Caetano, Gabriel Henrique de Oliveira
AU - Vale, Mariana M.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 Elsevier B.V.
PY - 2021/10/1
Y1 - 2021/10/1
N2 - Ecophysiological models are more data demanding and, consequently, less used than correlative ecological niche models to predict species’ distribution under climate change, especially for endotherms. Hybrid models that integrate both approaches are even less used, and several aspects about their predictions (e.g. accuracy, geographic extent and uncertainty) have been poorly explored. We developed a hybrid model for mammals using hours of activity and hours of heat stress as mechanistic variables, fitted using macroclimatic data and applied to conventional correlative modeling. We then compared the outputs from conventional correlative models with our hybrid model for 58 tropical mammals in term of accuracy, uncertainty, and predicted geographic distribution under climate change. We expected that hybrid models to have higher accuracy than correlative ones, with difference in predicted geographic distribution extent. We found no substantial differences between correlative and hybrid predictions for accuracy, uncertainty, and extent. Although the area predicted as suitable did not differ in extent, they differ in location, with lower congruence between models for future prediction. This result challenged the widespread assumption that hybrid models are more accurate. The ecophysiological model approach proposed here ease ecophysiological data requirements. We propose, therefore, choosing model approach based on study's objective, rather than on data requirements or the assumption that hybrid models have better predictions. The main advantage of the hybrid model is in providing a more complete view of the species response, as proximal (causal) and distal (environment) aspects are combined.
AB - Ecophysiological models are more data demanding and, consequently, less used than correlative ecological niche models to predict species’ distribution under climate change, especially for endotherms. Hybrid models that integrate both approaches are even less used, and several aspects about their predictions (e.g. accuracy, geographic extent and uncertainty) have been poorly explored. We developed a hybrid model for mammals using hours of activity and hours of heat stress as mechanistic variables, fitted using macroclimatic data and applied to conventional correlative modeling. We then compared the outputs from conventional correlative models with our hybrid model for 58 tropical mammals in term of accuracy, uncertainty, and predicted geographic distribution under climate change. We expected that hybrid models to have higher accuracy than correlative ones, with difference in predicted geographic distribution extent. We found no substantial differences between correlative and hybrid predictions for accuracy, uncertainty, and extent. Although the area predicted as suitable did not differ in extent, they differ in location, with lower congruence between models for future prediction. This result challenged the widespread assumption that hybrid models are more accurate. The ecophysiological model approach proposed here ease ecophysiological data requirements. We propose, therefore, choosing model approach based on study's objective, rather than on data requirements or the assumption that hybrid models have better predictions. The main advantage of the hybrid model is in providing a more complete view of the species response, as proximal (causal) and distal (environment) aspects are combined.
KW - Climate change
KW - Combined model
KW - Ecological niche model
KW - Endotherms
KW - Integrative model
KW - Mammals
KW - Mechanistic model
KW - Species distribution model
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85111936848&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109687
DO - 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109687
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85111936848
SN - 0304-3800
VL - 457
JO - Ecological Modelling
JF - Ecological Modelling
M1 - 109687
ER -