A simple remedy for overprecision in judgment

Uriel Haran, Don A. Moore, Carey K. Morewedge

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

73 Scopus citations

Abstract

Overprecision is the most robust type of overconfidence. We present a new method that significantly reduces this bias and offers insight into its underlying cause. In three experiments, overprecision was significantly reduced by forcing participants to consider all possible outcomes of an event. Each participant was presented with the entire range of possible outcomes divided into intervals, and estimated each interval's likelihood of including the true answer. The superiority of this Subjective Probability Interval Estimate (SPIES) method is robust to range widths and interval grain sizes. Its carryover effects are observed even in subsequent estimates made using the conventional, 90% confidence interval method: Judges who first made SPIES judgments considered a broader range of values in subsequent conventional interval estimates as well.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)467-476
Number of pages10
JournalJudgment and Decision Making
Volume5
Issue number7
StatePublished - 1 Dec 2010
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Interval estimates
  • Judgment and decision making
  • Overconfidence
  • Overprecision
  • Subjective probability

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Decision Sciences (all)
  • Applied Psychology
  • Economics and Econometrics

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