A Simple Tool for Making Better Forecasts

Don Moore, Uriel Haran

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle


The article discusses a study that developed a forecasting method called SPIES (Subjective Probability Interval EStimates) which computes range forecasts from a series of probability estimates rather than from two point predictions, as well as the advantages of its application in business.
Original languageEnglish GB
Pages (from-to)2-4
JournalHarvard Business Review
StatePublished - 19 May 2014


  • Forecasting methodology
  • Business forecasting
  • Probability theory


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