A test for a shift in the boundary of the geographical range of a species

Andrew Solow; Andrew Beet; Uri Roll; Lewi Stone

doi:10.1098/rsbl.2013.0808

A test for a shift in the boundary of the geographical range of a species

Andrew Solow, Andrew Beet, Uri Roll, Lewi Stone

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

2 Scopus citations

Abstract

One predicted impact of climate change is a poleward shift in the boundaries of species ranges. Existingmethods for identifying such a boundary shift based on changes in the observed pattern of occupancy within a grid of cells are sensitive to changes in the overall rate of sightings and their latitudinal distribution that are unconnected to a boundary shift. A formal test for a boundary shift is described that allows for such changes. The test is applied to detect northward shifts in the northern boundary of the Essex skipper (Thymelicus lineola) butterfly and the European goldfinch (Carduelis carduelis) in Great Britain. A shift is detected in the latter case but not in the former. Results from a simulation study are presented showing that the test performs well.

Original language	English
Article number	20130808
Journal	Biology Letters
Volume	10
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2013.0808
State	Published - 1 Jan 2014
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

Climate change
Extreme value statistics
Occupancy
Species range

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous)
General Agricultural and Biological Sciences

Access to Document

10.1098/rsbl.2013.0808

Cite this

@article{f53083ae24db41e881ab8e838237faf1,

title = "A test for a shift in the boundary of the geographical range of a species",

abstract = "One predicted impact of climate change is a poleward shift in the boundaries of species ranges. Existingmethods for identifying such a boundary shift based on changes in the observed pattern of occupancy within a grid of cells are sensitive to changes in the overall rate of sightings and their latitudinal distribution that are unconnected to a boundary shift. A formal test for a boundary shift is described that allows for such changes. The test is applied to detect northward shifts in the northern boundary of the Essex skipper (Thymelicus lineola) butterfly and the European goldfinch (Carduelis carduelis) in Great Britain. A shift is detected in the latter case but not in the former. Results from a simulation study are presented showing that the test performs well.",

keywords = "Climate change, Extreme value statistics, Occupancy, Species range",

author = "Andrew Solow and Andrew Beet and Uri Roll and Lewi Stone",

year = "2014",

month = jan,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1098/rsbl.2013.0808",

language = "English",

volume = "10",

journal = "Biology Letters",

issn = "1744-9561",

publisher = "The Royal Society",

number = "2",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - A test for a shift in the boundary of the geographical range of a species

AU - Solow, Andrew

AU - Beet, Andrew

AU - Roll, Uri

AU - Stone, Lewi

PY - 2014/1/1

Y1 - 2014/1/1

N2 - One predicted impact of climate change is a poleward shift in the boundaries of species ranges. Existingmethods for identifying such a boundary shift based on changes in the observed pattern of occupancy within a grid of cells are sensitive to changes in the overall rate of sightings and their latitudinal distribution that are unconnected to a boundary shift. A formal test for a boundary shift is described that allows for such changes. The test is applied to detect northward shifts in the northern boundary of the Essex skipper (Thymelicus lineola) butterfly and the European goldfinch (Carduelis carduelis) in Great Britain. A shift is detected in the latter case but not in the former. Results from a simulation study are presented showing that the test performs well.

AB - One predicted impact of climate change is a poleward shift in the boundaries of species ranges. Existingmethods for identifying such a boundary shift based on changes in the observed pattern of occupancy within a grid of cells are sensitive to changes in the overall rate of sightings and their latitudinal distribution that are unconnected to a boundary shift. A formal test for a boundary shift is described that allows for such changes. The test is applied to detect northward shifts in the northern boundary of the Essex skipper (Thymelicus lineola) butterfly and the European goldfinch (Carduelis carduelis) in Great Britain. A shift is detected in the latter case but not in the former. Results from a simulation study are presented showing that the test performs well.

KW - Climate change

KW - Extreme value statistics

KW - Occupancy

KW - Species range

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84896510585&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1098/rsbl.2013.0808

DO - 10.1098/rsbl.2013.0808

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84896510585

SN - 1744-9561

VL - 10

JO - Biology Letters

JF - Biology Letters

IS - 2

M1 - 20130808

ER -

A test for a shift in the boundary of the geographical range of a species

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this