An innovative method for determining hydrological calibration parameters for the WRF-Hydro model in arid regions

The techniques presented herein allow to directly determine certain crucial calibration parameters for the WRF-Hydro flood forecasting model. Typically, calibrations are chosen by an iterative, empirical, trial and error procedure. We suggest a more systematic methodology to arrive at a usable calibration. Our method is based on physical soil properties and does not depend on observed runoff from certain basins during specific storm events. Three specific calibration variables that most strongly affect the runoff predictions are addressed: topographic slope, saturated hydraulic conductivity, and infiltration. We outline a procedure for creating spatially distributed values for each of the three variables. Simulation runs are performed covering several storm events with calculated calibrations, with default values, and with an expert calibration. We show that our calibration, derived solely from soil physical properties, achieves forecast skill better than the default calibration and at least as good as an expert based calibration.