Beyond Bayes's Theorem: Effect of Base-Rate Information in Consensus Games

Many of the practical implications of behavioral decision-making research are based on the assumption that behavioral trends have to be compared with normative prescriptions. The present article demonstrates that in certain settings this approach is both inapplicable because there is no "normative" prescription and unnecessary because robust quantitative predictions can be made without reference to normative prescriptions. Experiment 1 demonstrates that a simple learning rule can be used to predict the base-rate effect in consensus games with multiple equilibria. Experiment 2 shows that information about the payoff rule affects participants' initial propensities but does not affect the learning process. Some implications of these results for the understanding of decision groups in social contexts, such as employment decisions in organizations, are pointed out.