Can baby-boomers' retirement increase stock prices?

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2 Scopus citations

Abstract

In a dynamic asset-pricing model with Hyperbolic Absolute Risk Aversion preferences, investors who have Decreasing Relative Risk Aversion have an age dependent component in their optimal asset allocation rule. Unlike conventional models, this component affects equilibrium equity returns due to demographic trends in the same direction suggested by (Poterba, J. M. (2001). Demographic Structure and Asset Returns.The Review of Economics and Statistics, 83 (4) 565-584; Poterba, J. M. (2004). The Impact of Population Aging on Financial Markets, NBER Working Paper No. 10851). Calibration to US data between 1950 and 2050 reveals that between 1950 and 1970 this effect potentially added 0.15% to the 7.79% post-war long-term return (actual was 8.39%). As boomers joined the labor market (1970-2004) this positive effect turned negative (0.17-0.34%). Ignoring consumption and wealth effects, the model implies that this effect will draw 0.06% annually between 2005 and 2015 but add 0.22% between 2016 and 2050.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)284-299
Number of pages16
JournalQuarterly Review of Economics and Finance
Volume46
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 May 2006

Keywords

  • Asset pricing
  • Baby boom
  • Demography
  • Trading strategies

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