Connectome-Based Predictive Modeling of PTSD Development among Recent Trauma Survivors

Importance: The weak link between subjective symptom-based diagnostics for posttraumatic psychopathology and objective neurobiological indices hinders the development of effective personalized treatments. Objective: To identify early neural networks associated with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) development among recent trauma survivors. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prognostic study used data from the Neurobehavioral Moderators of Posttraumatic Disease Trajectories (NMPTDT) large-scale longitudinal neuroimaging dataset of recent trauma survivors. The NMPTDT study was conducted from January 20, 2015, to March 11, 2020, and included adult civilians who were admitted to a general hospital emergency department in Israel and screened for early PTSD symptoms indicative of chronic PTSD risk. Enrolled participants completed comprehensive clinical assessments and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) scans at 1, 6, and 14 months post trauma. Data were analyzed from September 2023 to March 2024. Exposure: Traumatic events included motor vehicle incidents, physical assaults, robberies, hostilities, electric shocks, fires, drownings, work accidents, terror attacks, or large-scale disasters. Main Outcomes and Measures: Connectome-based predictive modeling (CPM), a whole-brain machine learning approach, was applied to resting-state and task-based fMRI data collected at 1 month post trauma. The primary outcome measure was PTSD symptom severity across the 3 time points, assessed with the Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale for DSM-5 (CAPS-5). Secondary outcomes included Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (Fifth Edition) (DSM-5) PTSD symptom clusters (intrusion, avoidance, negative alterations in mood and cognition, hyperarousal). Results: A total of 162 recent trauma survivors (mean [SD] age, 33.9 [11.5] years; 80 women [49.4%] and 82 men [50.6%]) were included at 1 month post trauma. Follow-up assessments were completed by 136 survivors (84.0%) at 6 months and by 133 survivors (82.1%) at 14 months post trauma. Among the 162 recent trauma survivors, CPM significantly predicted PTSD severity at 1 month (ρ = 0.18, P <.001) and 14 months (ρ = 0.24, P <.001) post trauma, but not at 6 months post trauma (ρ = 0.03, P =.39). The most predictive edges at 1 month included connections within and between the anterior default mode, motor sensory, and salience networks. These networks, with the additional contribution of the central executive and visual networks, were predictive of symptoms at 14 months. CPM predicted avoidance and negative alterations in mood and cognition at 1 month, but it predicted intrusion and hyperarousal symptoms at 14 months. Conclusions and Relevance: In this prognostic study of recent trauma survivors, individual differences in large-scale neural networks shortly after trauma were associated with variability in PTSD symptom trajectories over the first year following trauma exposure. These findings suggest that CPM may identify potential targets for interventions.