Cycle-time key factor identification and prediction in semiconductor manufacturing using machine learning and data mining

Within the complex and competitive semiconductor manufacturing industry, lot cycle time (CT) remains one of the key performance indicators. Its reduction is of strategic importance as it contributes to cost decreasing, time-to-market shortening, faster fault detection, achieving throughput targets, and improving production-resource scheduling. To reduce CT, we suggest and investigate a data-driven approach that identifies key factors and predicts their impact on CT. In our novel approach, we first identify the most influential factors using conditional mutual information maximization, and then apply the selective naive Bayesian classifier (SNBC) for further selection of a minimal, most discriminative key-factor set for CT prediction. Applied to a data set representing a simulated fab, our SNBC-based approach improves the accuracy of CT prediction in nearly 40% while narrowing the list of factors from 182 to 20. It shows comparable accuracy to those of other machine learning and statistical models, such as a decision tree, a neural network, and multinomial logistic regression. Compared to them, our approach also demonstrates simplicity and interpretability, as well as speedy and efficient model training. This approach could be implemented relatively easily in the fab promoting new insights to the process of wafer fabrication.