Abstract
We use developments in full-information optimal stopping to decide kidney-offer admissibility depending on the patient's age in treatment, on his/her estimated lifetime probabilistic profile and his/her prospects on the waiting list. We allow for a broad family of lifetime distributions - the Gamma - thus enabling flexible modeling of patients survival under dialysis. We fully automate an appropriate recursive solution in a spreadsheet application. It yields the optimal critical times for acceptance of offers of different qualities, and the ensuing expected value-to-go as a function of time. The model may serve both the organizer of a donation program for planning purposes, and the particular surgeon in making the critical decision at the proper time. It may further serve the potential individual recipient, practicing present-day patient-choice. Numerical results and their discussion are included.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 686-693 |
Number of pages | 8 |
Journal | European Journal of Operational Research |
Volume | 251 |
Issue number | 2 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - 1 Jun 2016 |
Keywords
- Centralized decision making
- Erlang lifetime
- Optimal stopping
- Organ allocation
- Patient-choice
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- General Computer Science
- Modeling and Simulation
- Management Science and Operations Research
- Information Systems and Management