Direct and indirect pathways of climate-related impacts on vulnerable populations: Insights from a nationwide study in the Eastern Mediterranean

Climate change exacerbates health and economic inequities, disproportionately impacting vulnerable populations. This study empirically validates and expands the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) risk framework—hazard, exposure, and vulnerability—by incorporating personal and collective dimensions such as risk appraisal, everyday adaptation, and community resilience. Using structural equation modeling (SEM) and data from a national survey (n = 1492) in Israel, we examined pathways linking climate risks and vulnerabilities to adverse outcomes. The IPCC dimensions were significant predictors of self-reported climate-related impacts. Vulnerability emerged as the strongest predictor of self-reported climate-related impacts, highlighting compounded risks for disadvantaged groups. Higher risk appraisal was associated with greater adverse outcomes, while personal adaptation (e.g., use of air conditioning) mitigated impacts. Communal strategies, such as seeking public shelter, were more common among highly exposed individuals but may have introduced additional burdens. Community resilience did not directly reduce impacts but enhanced collective adaptation mechanisms, reinforcing its role in adaptation. Findings underscore the need for multi-level policies addressing systemic inequities, strengthening both individual and communal adaptive capacities, and providing targeted support for at-risk populations. This study advances a comprehensive framework for equitable, context-specific climate adaptation with global policy relevance.