Diversity loss in microbial ecosystems undergoing gradual environmental changes

Microbial ecosystems in soils, oceans, and other environments are essential for global ecological stability. Environmental shifts are anticipated to trigger destabilizing events across the planet. In this study, we model how gradual environmental changes impact ecosystems, specifically when leading to a loss of diversity. We investigate how an ecosystem, within a serial dilution setup, relaxes to a stable steady state. Our results reveal that as an ecosystem approaches its loss-of-diversity transition, its dynamics slow down. Consequently, diverse ecosystems, such as tropical rainforest soils, gradually driven past their transition point may exhibit a significant response lag. This raises the possibility that some ecosystems may be closer to a collapse in diversity than current observations indicate. Although our model does not capture the full complexity of real-world ecosystems, it highlights critical aspects underlying the loss of biodiversity in changing environments. This has potential implications for empirical studies and when planning interventions.