Does progesterone to oocyte index have a predictive value for IVF outcome? A retrospective cohort and review of the literature

The potential adverse effect of Serum progesterone (SP) elevation on the day of hCG administration is a matter of continued debate. Our study aimed to evaluate the relative value of progesterone to a number of aspirated oocytes ratio (POI) to predict clinical pregnancy (CP) and live birth (LB) in fresh IVF cycles and to review the relevant literature. A retrospective analysis of GnRH Antagonist IVF-ET cycles. POI was calculated by dividing the SP on the day of hCG by the number of aspirated mature oocytes. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the predictive value of POI for CP and LB. Cycle outcome parameters included clinical pregnancy, live-birth and miscarriage. A total of 2,693 IVF/ICSI cycles were analyzed. POI was inversely associated with CP adjusted OR 0.063 (95% CI 0.016–0.249, p <.001) and with LB adjusted OR 0.036 (95% CI 0.007–0.199, p <.001). For prediction of LB, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.68 (95% CI 0.64–0.71, p <.001) for the POI model. POI above the 90th percentile with a value of 0.36 ng/mL/oocyte results in CP and LB rates of 8.0 and 5.9%, respectively. POI is a simple index for the prediction of IVF-ET cycle outcomes, it can advocate a limit above which embryo transfer should be reconsidered.