Does sense of threat in civilians during an armed conflict predict subsequent depression symptoms?

Objective: We aimed to assess whether peritraumatic threat experienced during a period of armed conflict predicted subsequent depression symptoms. Method: Ninety-six Israeli civilians provided real-time reports of exposure to rocket warning sirens and subjective sense of threat, twice daily for 30 days, during the 2014 Israel–Gaza conflict. Depression symptoms were reported 2 months after the conflict. Mixed-effects models were used to estimate peritraumatic threat levels and peritraumatic threat reactivity (within-person elevations in threat following siren exposure). These were then assessed as predictors of depression symptoms at 2 months in an adjusted regression model. Results: Individual peritraumatic threat level, but not peritraumatic threat reactivity, was a significant predictor of 2 months depression symptoms, even after controlling for baseline depression symptoms. Conclusions: The findings imply that in situations of ongoing exposure, screening for perceived levels of peritraumatic threat might be useful in identifying those at risk for developing subsequent depression symptoms.