First in first win: Evidence on schedule effects in round-robin tournaments in mega-events

The order of actions in contests may have a significant effect on performance. In this study, we examine the role of the schedule in round-robin tournaments with sequential games between three and four contestants. Our empirical analysis, based on soccer FIFA World Cups and UEFA European Championships, and on two Olympic wrestling events, reveals that there is a substantial advantage to the contestant who competes in the first and third matches. Our findings are in line with the hypothesis that winning probabilities in multi-stage contests with sequential games are endogenously depending on the schedule of contests as predicted by game-theoretical models. We also discuss possible ways to reduce the effect of the schedule.