Forecasting Tools in Practical Applications: Selection and Evaluation Methodology

Shlomi Dolev, Sergey Frenkel, Victor Zakharov

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

We call a set of programs a Prediction Tool (PT) that can be used to solve a particular applied prediction problem, for example, predicting the volumes of traffic under consideration at certain points in the future. The goal may also be a forecast for the network administrator. We analyze the information on the input data used for prediction and the choice of the predictors to be used among a set of predictors.The paper analyzes procedures for choosing a predictor during implementation of prediction online scheme.The predictability properties of random sequences, and the required and achievable accuracy based on estimating the conditional probability of prediction over past history results. Although some of these issues have been considered in sufficient detail in the literature, for example, the analysis of predictability measures, accuracy metrics, however, as will be shown, they are more focused on the problems of constructing specific prediction algorithms rather than focus on the choice of existing predictor from a given predictor set.It is shown how the specified properties of sequences and probability estimates affect the quality of the choice of predictors. Based on this analysis, a rule for choosing a predictor based on the results of previous (potential) predictions is formulated.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings - 2021 International Conference Engineering Technologies and Computer Science, EnT 2021
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages37-44
Number of pages8
ISBN (Electronic)9781665426749
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 Jan 2021
Event2021 International Conference Engineering Technologies and Computer Science, EnT 2021 - Moscow, Russian Federation
Duration: 18 Aug 202119 Aug 2021

Publication series

NameProceedings - 2021 International Conference Engineering Technologies and Computer Science, EnT 2021

Conference

Conference2021 International Conference Engineering Technologies and Computer Science, EnT 2021
Country/TerritoryRussian Federation
CityMoscow
Period18/08/2119/08/21

Keywords

  • Forecasting
  • Machine Learning
  • Predictability

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Computer Science (miscellaneous)
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Hardware and Architecture
  • Engineering (miscellaneous)
  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering
  • Instrumentation

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