From Local to Regional Spoiler: Hamas as a Case Study of a Multi-Dimensional Spoiler

This article develops a refined conceptual and analytical framework to examine how shifting opportunities and capabilities shape the behavior of total spoilers, particularly in intractable conflicts where peace efforts are intermittently renewed. Through an in-depth case study of Hamas, the article offers new insights into the transformation of a local spoiler in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict into a regional and multi-dimensional spoiler with global implications. It introduces the concept of the “multi-dimensional spoiler,” defined as an actor that operates across multiple geographic and political arenas, and combines violent and non-violent strategies such as political engagement, diplomacy, and alliance building, while maintaining an uncompromising ideological stance. Drawing on Zahar’s model of spoiler behavior, which emphasizes the interaction between perceived capabilities and opportunities, the article traces Hamas’s evolution from 1987 to 2023. It shows how Hamas has strategically adapted to shifting geopolitical conditions by diversifying its methods to disrupt peace processes and challenge normalization efforts. The analysis situates this transformation within broader patterns of spoiler persistence in intractable conflicts. By doing so, the article contributes to the theoretical understanding of how total spoilers evolve over time and highlights the need for more context-sensitive approaches to managing multi-dimensional spoilers in regional and global arenas.