Hotel revenue-management forecasting: Evidence of expert-judgment bias

Zvi Schwartz, Eli Cohen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

39 Scopus citations

Abstract

Despite hotel revenue managers' increasing reliance on computers, human judgment is still indispensable. A study of fifty-seven experienced revenue managers found that the nature of the user interface influenced the way the revenue managers adjusted the computers' forecasts - even though the managers were all given the same predictions regardless of the interface. The managers were divided into four groups of four possible interface designs they experienced. Those with a deliberate computer and no chart made the smallest volume of adjustments to the computer's forecast, about half that of the managers using a speedy computer and a chart. That group was followed by those with a speedy computer and no chart. The managers with a slow computer and an interactive chart made the highest volume of adjustments. Further research should indicate the exact nature of the interface's influence on human judgment.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)85-98
Number of pages14
JournalCornell Hotel and Restaurant Administration Quarterly
Volume45
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 Feb 2004

Keywords

  • Hotel revenue
  • Hotel revenue management
  • Revenue forecasting

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management

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