Hydro-Topographic Contribution to In-Field Crop Yield Variation Using High-Resolution Surface and GPR-Derived Subsurface DEMs

Understanding spatial variability in crop yields across fields is critical for developing precision agricultural strategies that optimize productivity while reducing negative environmental impacts. This variability often arises from a complex interplay of topographic features, soil characteristics, and hydrological conditions. This study investigates the influence of hydro-topographic factors on corn and soybean yield variability from 2016 to 2023 at the well-managed experimental sites in Beltsville, Maryland. A high-resolution surface digital elevation model (DEM) and subsurface DEM derived from ground-penetrating radar (GPR) were used to quantify topographic factors (elevation, slope, and aspect) and hydrological factors (surface flow accumulation, depth from the surface to the subsurface-restricting layer, and distance from each crop pixel to the nearest subsurface flow pathway). Topographic variables alone explained yield variation, with a relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of 23.7% (r² = 0.38). Adding hydrological variables reduced the error to 15.3% (r² = 0.73), and further combining with remote sensing data improved the explanatory power to an RRMSE of 10.0% (r² = 0.87). Notably, even without subsurface data, incorporating surface-derived flow accumulation reduced the RRMSE to 18.4% (r² = 0.62), which is especially important for large-scale cropland applications where subsurface data are often unavailable. Annual spatial yield variation maps were generated using hydro-topographic variables, enabling the identification of long-term persistent yield regions (LTRs), which served as stable references to reduce spatial anomalies and enhance model robustness. In addition, by combining remote sensing data with interannual meteorological variables, prediction models were evaluated with and without hydro-topographic inputs. The inclusion of hydro-topographic variables improved spatial characterization and enhanced prediction accuracy, reducing error by an average of 4.5% across multiple model combinations. These findings highlight the critical role of hydro-topography in explaining spatial yield variation for corn and soybean and support the development of precise, site-specific management strategies to enhance productivity and resource efficiency.