Integrated forecasting systems for monitoring fire blight in Trentino

Due to the excellent climatic conditions that enhance the fruit quality, apple is one of the most important crops in Trentino, Italy. About 12,500 hectares are cropped with apple with a production of 400 q/ha. Appropriate strategies are necessary to prevent fire blight establishment and diffusion in this area. After the first appearance of the bacterium in two locations in Trentino (however eradicated), a risk-monitoring network, based on a disease forecasting system, was implemented. The system allows identification of risk periods and areas, which can be quickly checked by inspectors. It is based on existing fire blight warning algorithms and on meteorological data of the region delivered by automatic weather stations. Outputs of the single warning systems are combined, delivering quantitative risk estimation of infection by fire blight. Evaluation of both the historical and the future weather and phenological data will allow optimisation of the fire blight scouting and monitoring.