Integrating weight and imaging features: A machine learning framework for larval instar identification in Mythimna separata (Walker)

The oriental armyworm, Mythimna separata (Walker), is a highly migratory pest known for its sudden larval outbreaks, which result in severe crop losses. These unpredictable surges pose significant challenges for timely and accurate monitoring, as conventional methods are labour-intensive and prone to errors. To address these limitations, this study investigates the use of machine learning for automated and precise identification of M. separata larval instars. A total of 1577 larval images representing different instar were analysed for geometric, colour, and texture features. Additionally, larval weight was predicted using 13 regression models. Instar identification was conducted using Support Vector Classifier (SVC), Random Forest, and Multi-Layer Perceptron. Key feature contributing to classification accuracy were subsequently identified through permutation feature importance analysis. The results demonstrated the potential of machine learning for automating instar identification with high efficiency and accuracy. Predicted larval weight emerged as a key feature, significantly enhancing the performance of all identification models. Among the tested approaches, BaggingRegressor exhibited the best performance for larval weight prediction (R2 = 98.20%, RMSE = 0.2313), while SVC achieved the highest instar identification accuracy (94%). Overall, the integration of larval weight with other image-derived features proved to be a highly effective strategy. This study demonstrates the efficacy of machine learning in enhancing pest monitoring systems by providing a scalable and reliable framework for precise pest management. The proposed methodology significantly improves larval instar identification accuracy and efficiency, offering actionable insights for implementing targeted biological and chemical control strategies.