## Abstract

The model, which describes the initiation and progression of approximal dental caries, is developed from an analysis of 4 to 13 sets of serial bitewing radiograph exams taken on over 700 individuals. Caries incidence is modeled as follows: (1) there is an underlying gamma distribution representing variation in an individual's expected annual number of new lesions; (2) an individual's distribution of new lesions in a year follows a Poisson process with expected value that can be thought of as having been randomly selected from the gamma distribution. Progression is modeled by assuming duration of carious lesions in each half of the dental enamel can be approximated by a piecewise exponential distribution. Using this model, we determine the relationship between when the next set of bitewing radiographs is performed and the probability that carious lesions are detected before any lesions reach the inner hal of the dentin.

Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 771-783 |

Number of pages | 13 |

Journal | Management Science |

Volume | 33 |

Issue number | 6 |

DOIs | |

State | Published - 1 Jan 1987 |

Externally published | Yes |