Methodology for estimating the potential of ground-mounted solar photovoltaic as part of the national electricity grid: The case of Israel

Solar photovoltaic (PV) is one of the leading renewable energy technologies that has the potential to generate a large amount of electricity. However, this potential may not be fully utilized on the national level. Obstacles to its use include electrical power system restrictions designed to avoid its possible adverse effect on the stability of the system, its reliability and the quality of its supply, and the limited land areas on which to deploy it. This paper presents a GIS-based land suitability analysis that determines suitable areas for installing large-scale, ground-mounted solar photovoltaic farms and their corresponding technical potential. Our contribution is in providing a realistic assessment of how PV systems can actually be connected to existing electrical grids without disrupting the local power system's hosting capacity, capabilities and constraints. We tested our proposal using Israel's entire national power system configuration as a case study. Our results indicate that a total of 2.93 GW of installed capacity and 5.16 TWh of energy generation can theoretically be integrated into Israel's existing electrical grid, without any changes in the existing system. This potential is equivalent to approximately 15% and 7% of the country's total installed capacity and energy generation, respectively. In 2020, Israel increased its target for renewable energy from 17% to 30% of national energy production by 2030. Given that ground-mounted PV can provide only a small part of Israel's energy needs, without seeking other renewable energy solutions and making major changes, meeting this ambitious goal is unlikely.