On the distribution of activity time in pert

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

83 Scopus citations

Abstract

In PERT analysis the activity-time distribution is assumed to be a beta distribution, and the mean and variance of the activity time are estimated on the basis of the ‘pessimistic’, ‘most likely’ and ‘optimistic’ completion times, which are subjectively determined by an analyst. In this paper, on the basis of the study of the PERT assumptions, we present an improvement of these estimates. It is also shown that, by means of additional reasonable assumptions, the activity-time distribution in PERT analysis may be essentially simplified.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)767-771
Number of pages5
JournalJournal of the Operational Research Society
Volume39
Issue number8
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 Jan 1988

Keywords

  • Activity times
  • Beta distribution
  • PERT
  • Simulation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Management Information Systems
  • Strategy and Management
  • Management Science and Operations Research
  • Marketing

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