Abstract
In PERT analysis the activity-time distribution is assumed to be a beta distribution, and the mean and variance of the activity time are estimated on the basis of the ‘pessimistic’, ‘most likely’ and ‘optimistic’ completion times, which are subjectively determined by an analyst. In this paper, on the basis of the study of the PERT assumptions, we present an improvement of these estimates. It is also shown that, by means of additional reasonable assumptions, the activity-time distribution in PERT analysis may be essentially simplified.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 767-771 |
| Number of pages | 5 |
| Journal | Journal of the Operational Research Society |
| Volume | 39 |
| Issue number | 8 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - 1 Jan 1988 |
Keywords
- Activity times
- Beta distribution
- PERT
- Simulation
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Management Information Systems
- Strategy and Management
- Management Science and Operations Research
- Marketing