## Abstract

We study the uncertain dichotomous choice model. In this model a group of decision makers is required to select one of two alternatives. The applications of this model are relevant to a wide variety of areas, such as medicine, management and banking. The decision rule may be the simple majority rule; however, it is also possible to assign more weight to the opinion of members known to be more qualified. The extreme example of such a rule is the expert decision rule. We are concerned with the probability of the expert rule to be optimal. Our purpose is to investigate the behaviour of this probability as a function of the group size for several rather general types of distributions. One such family of distributions is that where the density function of the correctness probability is a polynomial (on the interval [1/2, 1]). Our main result is an explicit formula for the probability in question. This contains formerly known results as very special cases.

Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 141-162 |

Number of pages | 22 |

Journal | Acta Applicandae Mathematicae |

Volume | 69 |

Issue number | 2 |

DOIs | |

State | Published - 1 Nov 2001 |

## Keywords

- Choice
- Decision rule
- Dichotomous
- Expert rule
- Expertise
- Experts
- Model
- Optimality
- Partial information
- Probability

## ASJC Scopus subject areas

- Applied Mathematics