Optimizing Operation Room Utilization—A Prediction Model

Background: Operating rooms are the core of hospitals. They are a primary source of revenue and are often seen as one of the bottlenecks in the medical system. Many efforts are made to increase throughput, reduce costs, and maximize incomes, as well as optimize clinical outcomes and patient satisfaction. We trained a predictive model on the length of surgeries to improve the productivity and utility of operative rooms in general hospitals. Methods: We collected clinical and administrative data for the last 10 years from two large general public hospitals in Israel. We trained a machine learning model to give the expected length of surgery using pre-operative data. These data included diagnoses, laboratory tests, risk factors, demographics, procedures, anesthesia type, and the main surgeon’s level of experience. We compared our model to a naïve model that represented current practice. Findings: Our prediction model achieved better performance than the naïve model and explained almost 70% of the variance in surgery durations. Interpretation: A machine learning-based model can be a useful approach for increasing operating room utilization. Among the most important factors were the type of procedures and the main surgeon’s level of experience. The model enables the harmonizing of hospital productivity through wise scheduling and matching suitable teams for a variety of clinical procedures for the benefit of the individual patient and the system as a whole.