PastoralScape: An Environment-Driven Model of Vaccination Decision Making within Pastoralist Groups in East Africa

Economic and cultural resilience among pastoralists in East Africa is threatened by the interconnected forces of climate change and contagious diseases spread. A key factor in the resilience of livestock dependent communities is human decision making regarding vaccination against preventable diseases such as Rift Valley fever and Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia. The relationship between healthy and productive livestock and economic development of poor households and communities is mediated by human decision making. This paper describes a coupled human and natural systems agent-based model that focuses on One Health. Disease propagation and animal nutritional health are driven by historical GIS data that captures changes in foraging condition. The results of a series of experiments are presented that demonstrate the sensitivity of a transformed Random Field Ising Model of human decision making to changes in human memory and rationality parameters. Results presented communicate that convergence in the splitting of households between vaccinating or not is achieved for combinations of memory and rationality. The interaction of these cognition parameters with public information and social networks of opinions is detailed. This version of the PastoralScape model is intended to form the basis upon which richer economic and human factor models can be built.