Abstract
Complex networks have been used intensively to investigate the flow and dynamics of many natural systems including the climate system. Here, we develop a percolation based measure, the order parameter, to study and quantify climate networks. We find that abrupt transitions of the order parameter usually occur ~1 year before El Ni~no events, suggesting that they can be used as early warning precursors of El Ni~no. Using this method, we analyze several reanalysis datasets and show the potential for good forecasting of El Ni~no. The percolation based order parameter exhibits discontinuous features, indicating a possible relation to the first order phase transition mechanism.
Original language | English |
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Article number | 035807 |
Journal | Chaos |
Volume | 27 |
Issue number | 3 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - 1 Mar 2017 |
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Statistical and Nonlinear Physics
- Mathematical Physics
- General Physics and Astronomy
- Applied Mathematics