Pre-Procedural Predictors of Successful Endoscopic Sleeve Gastroplasty: A Retrospective Study

Objective: Obesity is a major risk factor for the morbidity and mortality of cardiovascular disease and predicts the development of hypertension, diabetes mellitus and other various diseases. Methods: A retrospective study evaluated predictors for higher total body weight loss following endoscopic sleeve gastroplasty (ESG). Adults (>18 years old) with BMI > 30 kg/m² who underwent ESG from January 2019 to July 2022 were included. Patients under the age of 18 were excluded from the study. Results: This retrospective cohort included 76 patients, of whom 62 women (81.6%) and 14 were men (18.4%) with a mean age of 46.3 ± 10.4. The mean BMI baseline was 36.6 ± 4.21. Out of the included patients, 10% were lost to follow-up at 1 month, 33% at 3 months, 50% after 6 months, and only 30% met 12 months follow-up. During the follow-up period, no mortality was documented. Three major adverse events (3.9%) were documented (one mediastinal abscess, one lower gastrointestinal bleeding and one pulmonary embolism), all of them in female patients. Among the demographic clinical and laboratory data examined, smoking (N = 6, p < 0.001) was associated with successful ESG, which was determined as total body weight loss (TBWL) above 15%. The rest of the variables examined were not shown to be statistically significant to sleeve success. Overall, 65 of the 76 patients which were studied in this research had more than 5% TBWL, 42 patients had more than 10% TBWL, 21 patients had more than 15% TBWL and 7 patients lost more than 20% of their weight during 1 year of follow-up. Maximal TBWL was achieved 3 months following the procedure. During the first month following ESG, the average weight lost was 8.6% (N = 69); at 3 months, it was 12.3% (N = 48); at 6 months, it was 11.3% (N = 33); and at 12 months, it was 9.8% (N = 13). Smoking was associated with higher weight loss. Conclusions: The current study showed a positive correlation between ESG weight loss above 15% and smoking. Older patients (>50) gained weight earlier, within 3 months, and by 1 year of follow-up almost returned back to their original weight. Females sustained weight loss over 1 year of follow-up compared to males. Patients with lower BMI continued losing weight during the follow-up period (12 months). This study tries to summarize pre-procedural prediction of ESG success.