Predicting antibody kinetics and duration of protection against SARS-CoV-2 following vaccination from sparse serological data

Vaccination against the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) generates an antibody response that shows large inter-individual variability. This variability complicates the use of antibody levels as a correlate of protection and the evaluation of population- and individual-level infection risk without access to broad serological testing. Here, we applied a mathematical model of antibody kinetics to capture individual anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody trajectories and to identify factors driving the humoral immune response. Subsequently, we evaluated model predictions and inferred the corresponding duration of protection for new individuals based on a single antibody measurement, assuming sparse access to serological testing. We observe a reduced antibody response in older and in male individuals, and in individuals with autoimmune diseases, diabetes and immunosuppression, using data from a longitudinal cohort study conducted in healthcare workers at Sheba Medical Center, Israel, following primary vaccination with the BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine. Our results further suggest that model predictions of an individual’s antibody response to vaccination can be used to predict the duration of protection when serological data is limited, highlighting the potential of our approach to estimate infection risk over time on both the population and individual level to support public health decision-making in future pandemics.