Real-time evaluation of signal accuracy in wastewater surveillance of pathogens with high rates of mutation

Wastewater surveillance of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) commonly applies reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) to quantify severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA concentrations in wastewater over time. In most applications worldwide, maximal sensitivity and specificity of RT-qPCR has been achieved, in part, by monitoring two or more genomic loci of SARS-CoV-2. In Ontario, Canada, the provincial Wastewater Surveillance Initiative reports the average copies of the CDC N1 and N2 loci normalized to the fecal biomarker pepper mild mottle virus. In November 2021, the emergence of the Omicron variant of concern, harboring a C28311T mutation within the CDC N1 probe region, challenged the accuracy of the consensus between the RT-qPCR measurements of the N1 and N2 loci of SARS-CoV-2. In this study, we developed and applied a novel real-time dual loci quality assurance and control framework based on the relative difference between the loci measurements to the City of Ottawa dataset to identify a loss of sensitivity of the N1 assay in the period from July 10, 2022 to January 31, 2023. Further analysis via sequencing and allele-specific RT-qPCR revealed a high proportion of mutations C28312T and A28330G during the study period, both in the City of Ottawa and across the province. It is hypothesized that nucleotide mutations in the probe region, especially A28330G, led to inefficient annealing, resulting in reduction in sensitivity and accuracy of the N1 assay. This study highlights the importance of implementing quality assurance and control criteria to continually evaluate, in near real-time, the accuracy of the signal produced in wastewater surveillance applications that rely on detection of pathogens whose genomes undergo high rates of mutation.