Regulating environmental threats

Environmental consequences of natural resource exploitation often entail threats of future occurrences of detrimental abrupt events rather than (or in addition to) inflicting a damage gradually. The possibility of abrupt occurrence of climate-change related calamities is a case in mind. The uncertainty associated with the realization of these threats and their public-bad nature complicate the design of optimal economic response. We derive a Pigouvian hazard tax schedule that implements the socially optimal outcome. The tax is based on the expected cost of the hazard-generating activities and serves to reduce hazardous emissions well in advance of the catastrophic occurrence. A numerical example illustrates possible effects of the proposed regulation scheme. Implications for climate policy are discussed.