Risk Factors Before Dialysis Predominate as Mortality Predictors in Diabetic Maintenance Dialysis patients

Noa Tsur, Idan Menashe, Yosef S. Haviv

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Abstract

Diabetic patients undergoing maintenance dialysis (MD) have a particularly high mortality rate. Many of the risk factors for mortality have been identified in diabetics who die before reaching end stage renal disease (ESRD), i.e. before dialysis (BD). In addition, many risk factors for mortality have been identified in diabetics after dialysis onset (AD). However, whether in the BD period there are long-term risk factors for AD mortality in diabetics is unknown. We therefore investigated a new concept, i.e. that clinical and biochemical risk factors during the BD stage affect long-term AD mortality. We performed a population based retrospective cohort study, in diabetic CKD patients in a single center in south Israel who initiated MD between the years 2003 and 2015. Clinical and biochemical data 12 months BD and 6 months AD were collected and evaluated for association with mortality AD using Cox’s proportional-hazards model. BD parameters that were found to be significant were adjusted for significant parameters AD, thus generating a “combined” regression model in order to isolate the contribution of BD factors on long term mortality. Six hundred and fifty two diabetic MD patients were included in the final analysis. Four independent BD parameters were found in the multivariate model to significantly predict AD mortality: age, BMI (inversely), pulse pressure (U-shaped) and cardiovascular comorbidity. AD independent risk factors for mortality were age, BMI (inversely) and albumin (inversely). Of note, BD factors remained dominantly significant even after additionally adjusting for AD factors. No association was found between either BD HbA1C levels or BD proteinuria and AD mortality. In diabetics who reach ESRD, BD parameters can predict long term AD mortality. Thus, some of the factors affecting the poor survival of diabetic MD patients appear to begin already in the BD period.

Original languageEnglish
Article number10633
JournalScientific Reports
Volume9
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 Dec 2019

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