Scenarios for a more sustainable water management in the Dead Sea basin

Following the depletion of inflows and the increased evaporation, the Dead Sea water level has fallen constantly since the 1950s. This paper discusses two scenarios for a possible future development: one follows a supply-driven approach by bringing in more water through a Red-Dead-Conduit. The second scenario assumes that more water could flow from the Lake Tiberias and the lower Jordan River, and that water usage in agriculture would be limited. Qualitative information from the narrative scenarios was translated into quantitative data to feed a system dynamic model that allows tracing the development until 2025. This paper presents three indicators for changes, namely the Dead Sea inflow-outflow balance, the Dead Sea water level, and the water uses in major usage sectors. The authors conclude that a more sustainable water management is possible: First, the mineral extracting industries must cease evaporating Dead Sea water. Second, the flow of the lower Jordan River must be restored to at least a third of its original flow. Third, if water from the Red Sea is brought into the region, there must be not only an environmental but also a social impact assessment.