Sensitivity of Erosion-Rate in Permafrost Landscapes to Changing Climatic and Environmental Conditions Based on Lake Sediments From Northwestern Alaska

Erosion of landscapes underlaid by permafrost can transform sediment and nutrient fluxes, surface and subsurface hydrology, soil properties, and rates of permafrost thaw, thus changing ecosystems and carbon emissions in high latitude regions with potential implications for global climate. However, future rates of erosion and sediment transport are difficult to predict as they depend on complex interactions between climatic and environmental parameters such as temperature, precipitation, permafrost, vegetation, wildfires, and hydrology. Thus, despite the potential influence of erosion on the future of the Arctic and global systems, the relations between erosion-rate and these parameters, as well as their relative importance, remain largely unquantified. Here we quantify these relations based on a sedimentary record from Burial Lake, Alaska, one of the richest datasets of Arctic lake deposits. We apply a set of bi- and multi-variate techniques to explore the association between the flux of terrigenous sediments into the lake (a proxy for erosion-rate) and a variety of biogeochemical sedimentary proxies for paleoclimatic and environmental conditions over the past 25 cal ka BP. Our results show that erosion-rate is most strongly associated with temperature and vegetation proxies, and that erosion-rate decreases with increased temperature, pollen-counts, and abundance of pollen from shrubs and trees. Other proxies, such as those associated with fire frequency, aeolian dust supply, mass wasting and hydrologic conditions, play a secondary role. The marginal effects of the sedimentary-proxies on erosion-rate are often threshold dependent, highlighting the potential for strong non-linear changes in erosion in response to future changes in Arctic conditions.