Service life prediction of exterior cladding components under standard conditions

Igal M. Shohet, Monica Paciuk

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

80 Scopus citations


An empirical method was developed for the prediction of the service life of building components, based on an evaluation of their actual performance and on the identification of failure mechanisms affecting their durability. The service life of exterior components subjected to normal service conditions is predicted. Four types of exterior claddings are exemplified: cementitious mortar, synthetic rendering, ceramic mosaic, and wet-fixing stone cladding. The proposed prediction models yield high degrees of fit to the data (R2 in the range of 0.86 to 0.93 at a 0.0001 level of significance). Life cycle costs (LCC) analysis - following service-life prediction results - leads to the conclusion that maintenance and replacements costs account for 10-80% of initial capital costs. Synthetic rendering exhibited the highest LCC effectiveness, reflecting durability and low capital costs. The method can be used for planning preventive maintenance, evaluating economic implications of failures, and planning service life.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1081-1090
Number of pages10
JournalConstruction Management and Economics
Issue number10
StatePublished - 1 Dec 2004
Externally publishedYes


  • Life cycle assessment
  • Maintenance
  • Performance
  • Service life planning
  • Service life prediction

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Management Information Systems
  • Building and Construction
  • Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering


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