Spatio-temporal trends of housing and population growth during a building cycle: Evidence from metropolitan Tel-Aviv, 1968 to 1990

This paper argues that the degree of spatio-temporal conformity between housing supply and demand changes in different stages of the building cycle. It is hypothesized that, during the upswing period, population growth reacts quickly to housing construction, and thus spatio-temporal conformity is anticipated. On the contrary, during the downswing period, population growth reacts much more slowly to housing opportunities and therefore spatio-temporal disconformity between population growth and housing supply is expected. These postulates are tested for the Tel-Aviv metropolitan area during the building cycle from 1968 to 1990. Population growth and housing construction growth were found to proceed in almost full harmony during the upswing period, whereas they diverge greatly during the slowdown years. The main disconformity found in the latter period is a revival of housing construction growth close to the central parts of the metropolis at a time when the highest population growth continued in the outskirts.