Joshua Aizenman, Mark M. Spiegel

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

17 Scopus citations


This paper identifies factors associated with takeoff-a sustained period of high growth following a period of stagnation. Countries that experience takeoffs average 2.3% annual growth following their stagnation episodes, while those that do not average 0%. Using probit, we find that de jure trade openness is positively and significantly associated with takeoffs. A one-standard-deviation increase in de jure trade openness is associated with a 55% increase in the probability of a takeoff in our default specification. Capital account openness encourages takeoff responses, but measures of de facto trade openness are found to be poor predictors of takeoffs. We also examine the determinants of nations achieving " sustained" takeoffs; i.e. those lasting eight years or longer. Takeoffs in countries with more commodity-intensive output bundles are less likely to be sustained, suggesting that adverse terms-of-trade shocks may play a role in ending long-term high growth episodes.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)177-196
Number of pages20
JournalReview of Development Economics
Issue number2
StatePublished - 1 May 2010
Externally publishedYes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Development


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