Targeted investment in elite sports: an empirical lesson from professional fencing

Purpose/Rationale: Targeted investment is an important principle in allocating budgets between different sports. This paper analyzes whether the probability of a higher-ranked fencer winning a match differs between epee, sabre, and foil, the three weapons used in professional fencing. Design/Methodology/Approach: We used data on 6743 men’s and women’s fencing matches from the 120 most prestigious fencing tournaments from the 2014–2015 to 2018–2019 seasons. For that, we used multiple logistic regressions. Findings: Among men, epee competitions were the most balanced in the sense that higher-ranked fencers had the lowest probability of winning among the three weapons. Among women, epee competitions were significantly more balanced than sabre competitions, but not significantly more balanced than foil competitions. Practical implications: If a weaker fencing country wishes to enter the sport of fencing, it should prioritize epee competitions to increase the probability of sporting success. Research contribution: While targeted investment is a well-known theoretical tool, there are not many empirical studies that confirm its practicality. Our methodology may be used in other sports to achieve a more efficient targeted investment. Originality/Value: This study is an example of the intersection between theory and empirics in a sport that is not often being investigated.