The ability of short-term responses to predict the long-term consequences of conservation management actions: The case of the endangered Paeonia mascula (L.) Mill.

The survival of endangered species often depends on conservation management actions aiming to modify some of the biotic or abiotic characteristics of the environment. Owing to numerous limitations, most often only short-term responses to management are evaluated. However, lack of correlation between short- and long-term effects can result in the implementation of erroneous conservation management plans. We present an example of the locally endangered plant, Paeonia mascula (L.) Mill., in plots that were cleared from trees ∼20 years ago, and in plots whose canopies remained intact. The short-term responses (obtained during the four-post canopy opening years) reported in a previous study, suggested that clearing increases flowering, while not changing plant density. However, the long-term (20 years) consequences were negative, with flowering percentage, plant density and soil seed bank all being lower in the cleared, compared to the control plots. Our results illustrate that short-term positive responses can not only be canceled out, but even overturned by the respective long-term negative effects. In other words, our study indicates that short-term species-specific responses to perturbations can be misleading, highlighting the limitations of extrapolating ecological processes.