The Effect of Heat Stress on Daily Mortality in Different Age and Ethnic Population Groups in the Beersheba Region, Israel

Michael Friger, Annibale Biggeri, Arkady Bolotin, Lilian Tzivian, Michela Baccini

Research output: Contribution to conferenceAbstract


Background: Since nowadays climate is changing, the impact of heat stress (HS) on mortality is a matter of increasing interest. Recent studies show that HS being described thru such factors as apparent temperature and discomfort index (DI) is associated with mortality in different regions. Therewithal, understanding the impact of these and other HS factors on different population groups in various world’s regions is still limited.
Aims To study and to assess associations between HS effect and all mortality causes for different age and ethnic groups in the city of Beer Sheva, Israel, and the suburb area.
Methods and statistical analysis All natural causes of daily mortality rates (ANMR) in 65- and 65+ age groups were analyzed for Jewish and Bedouin populations over 1997-2010 years. As factors described HS, we took daily DI readings and the maximum-minimum difference of daily temperature (DMM). Also daily values of relative humidity and PM10, NOx, and SO2, concentrations were included. To estimate the rate ratio of HS-caused incidences, controlled for seasonal factors and pollutants, we applied a multivariate time series-based Poisson regression that was realized using the broken line linear spline of DI at 24°. Results HS effects have been found nonexistent in 65- age groups. In contrast, in 65+ age groups, an increased ANMR were found for DI in Jewish (IRR=1.01 95%CI 1.001-1.021, p<0.02) and in Bedouin populations (IRR=1.04 95%CI 1.03-1.05, p<0.01). We observed a large HS effects by DMM in Bedouin population aged 65+. Namely, for DMM staying between 5° and 10°, IRR=1.36 (95%CI 1.26-1.48, p<0.01), for DMM=10°¸15° IRR=1.40 (95%CI 1.33-1.48, p<0.01). Furthermore, in either ethnicity group aged 65+, significant HS effects were found for ANMR lagging 1, 2 and 3 days. Conclusion As it appears, HS-caused mortality risk is associated with age and ethnicity. There exists both immediate and delayed HS effects in old population groups.
Original languageEnglish
StatePublished - 19 Sep 2013


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