The Evolution Of 21 cm Structure (EOS): Public, large-scale simulations of Cosmic Dawn and reionization

We introduce the Evolution Of 21 cm Structure (EOS) project: Providing periodic, public releases of the latest cosmological 21 cm simulations. 21 cm interferometry is set to revolutionize studies of the Cosmic Dawn (CD) and Epoch of Reionization (EoR). Progress will depend on sophisticated data analysis pipelines, initially tested on large-scale mock observations. Here we present the 2016 EOS release: 1024₃, 1.6 Gpc, 21 cm simulations of the CD and EoR, calibrated to the Planck 2015 measurements. We include calibrated, sub-grid prescriptions for inhomogeneous recombinations and photoheating suppression of star formation in small-mass galaxies. Leaving the efficiency of supernovae feedback as a free parameter, we present two runs which bracket the contribution from faint unseen galaxies. From these two extremes, we predict that the duration of reionization (defined as a change in the mean neutral fraction from 0.9 to 0.1) should be between 2.7 ≲ Δz_re ≲ 5.7. The large-scale 21 cm power during the advanced EoR stages can be different by up to a factor of ~10, depending on the model. This difference has a comparable contribution from (i) the typical bias of sources and (ii) a more efficient negative feedback in models with an extended EoR driven by faint galaxies. We also present detectability forecasts. With a 1000 h integration, Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array and (Square Kilometre Array phase 1) SKA1 should achieve a signal-to-noise of ~few to hundreds throughout the EoR/CD. We caution that our ability to clean foregrounds determines the relative performance of narrow/deep versus wide/shallow surveys expected with SKA1. Our 21-cm power spectra, simulation outputs and visualizations are publicly available.