The Groningen radiocarbon series from Tel Rehov: Oxcal bayesian computations for the iron IB-IIA boundary and iron IIA destruction events

The stratified series of Iron Age radiocarbon dates from Tel Reh?ov, based on short-lived samples, measured in Groningen, is the most detailed and dense chronometric record currently available for the Levant in this period. The more detailed IntCal98 calibration curve was used, though some comparisons were made with the smoothed IntCal04 curve. The current Bayesian stratigraphic model for Tel Reh?ov gave a number of significant results. The data strongly favour an early Iron Age IB-IIA transition, as the statistically sampled boundary in the 1s range is 992-961 BCE (68.2%). Considering the 2s range, the older time option, 998-957 BCE, further increases in probability to 75.2%, but a second option also appears, 953-921 BCE, albeit with a significantly lower relative probability of 20.2%. Our Bayesian model was also tested with the IntCal04 calibration curve, which gave similar but slightly older results: the 1s range is 993-961 BCE (68.2%) and the 2s range is 1001-927 BCE (95.4%). The peak probability remains the same at ca. 970 BCE. The Stratum VI dates have the most likely position within the 1s range 971-958 BCE (62.4%). The City of Stratum V had a possible duration of 26 to 46 years, in the 1s and 2s ranges, respectively. The 1s sampled destruction of City V is 924-902 BCE (68.2%). This time range could fit a possible association with the Asian campaign of Shoshenq I (Shishak), solely based on Egyptian criteria (see Shortland [Chapter 4, this volume]). Running the Bayesian model with the IntCal04 calibration curve yielded a slightly older date in the 1s range: 929-906 BCE (68.2%). The latter range does include the date 925 BCE for the Shoshenq campaign as suggested by Kitchen (1986, 2000). The City of Stratum IV had a possible duration of 28-55 years, in the 1s and 2s ranges, respectively. The 1s sampled destruction of City IV is 903-892 (13.4%), 885-845 BCE (54.8%). Thus, the Bayesian statistical computation results of the Tel Reh?ov stratigraphic model generally strengthen earlier conclusions concerning a revised traditional chronology, and do not indicate support for the low chronology viewpoint.