The use of time-dynamic patterns of temperature and flexible generalized models to clarify the relations between temperature and semen quality

Background: Sperm quality has decreased over the last decades worldwide. It is affected, among others, by season and heat. This study aimed to address the association between ambient temperature and sperm quality by assessing its shape using flexible multivariate models and identifying distinct time-dynamic patterns of temperature change based on unsupervised analysis. Material and methods: A retrospective population-based study has been conducted, including all samples of males attending the Fertility and In-Vitro-Fertilization unit at a single medical center during 2016–2022. Flexible generalized models were fitted to characterize the relations between sperm quality and temperature while accounting for patients characteristics, and to identify temperature levels that correspond with the optimal sperm quality. This information was then used to estimate adjusted slope coefficients at specified time-windows. Results: In total, 4555 sperm samples were provided by 3229 individuals. Sperm concentration, motility and progressive motility were higher by 8 %, 11 % and 16 %, respectively, during the spring versus the fall season. Furthermore, their quality during early spermatogenesis improved with temperature, until a certain optimum around 23 °C–24 °C. Increasing temperature at later developmental stages was associated with lower sperm concentration and higher motility. Sperm concentration and motility were highest following a period of moderate gradual warming. Motility was higher and sperm concentration was lower, following a period with heatwaves or summer. Conclusions: This study assessed temperature role in sperm production quality by considering both average and time-dynamic temperatures. It identified several temperature change patterns over time and stratified the analysis by them. The differences in the relations across stages of spermatogenesis were addressed. Several mechanisms may explain the associations found, including heat-induced apoptosis of the sperm cells, and destruction of sperm cells DNA integrity by over-production of reactive oxygen species. The gradual global warming necessitates exploration of individual response to outdoor temperature in relations to genetic predisposition, lifestyle, and other health characteristics.