Trade dependency, bargaining and external debt

This paper analyzes the welfare effects of a conditional debt relief in the presence of partial defaults. Even for an economy in a state of partial default, external finance for investment in highly trade-dependent sectors may be warranted. A marginal relief of the present debt service, conditional on an equivalent increase in investment in the trade-dependent sectors, will benefit the debtor and will increase the future repayment. Investment targeted towards highly productive trade-dependent sectors will benefit both creditors and debtors. The investment can be implemented by a marginal relief of the present debt service, or through direct investment.