Trends of changes in the specific contribution of selected risk factors for shoulder dystocia over a period of more than two decades

Shoulder dystocia (SD) is an obstetrical emergency with well-recognized risk factors. We aimed to identify trends of changes in the specific contribution of risk factors for SD over time. A nested case control study comparing all singleton deliveries with and without SD was undertaken. A multivariable logistic regression model was used in order to identify independent risk factors for SD and a comparison of the prevalence and the specific contribution (odds ratio (OR)) of the chosen risk factors in three consecutive eight-year intervals from 1988 to 2014 was performed. During the study period, there were 295,946 deliveries. Of them 514 (0.174%) were complicated with SD. Between 1988 and 2014 the incidence of SD has decreased from 0.3% in 1988 to 0.1% in 2014. Using a logistic regression model grandmultiparity, diabetes mellitus (DM), fetal weight, and large for gestational age (LGA) were found to be independent risk factors for SD (OR 1.25 95% CI 1.04-1.51, p=0.02; OR 1.53 95% CI 1.19-1.97, p=0.001; OR 1.002 95% CI 1.001-1.002, p < 0.001; OR 3.88 95% CI 3.09-4.87, p < 0.001; respectively). While the OR for grandmultiparity, fetal weight, and LGA has significantly changed during the study period with a mixed trend, the OR of DM has demonstrated a significant linear increase over time. The individual contribution of selected risk factors for the occurrence of SD has significantly changed throughout the years. The contribution of DM has demonstrated a linear increase over time, emphasizing the great impact of DM on SD.