Uncertainty quantification for a middle east water supply system

Rachel E. Bullene, J. Paul Brooks, Edward L. Boone, Clive Lipchin, Toni P. Sorrell, Charles R. Stewart

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

5 Scopus citations

Abstract

This paper introduces a framework for incorporating uncertainty in water supply system models that uses Bayesian statistics and mixed-integer programming. The output of the framework includes the most probable least cost solution, the probability of feasibility for a given solution, component probabilities for each decision, and a distribution of the optimal objective function value. The method is applied to the problem of developing a water supply system design for Israel, Jordan, and the Palestinian territories. The method allows decision makers to evaluate various alternatives for a water supply plan that incorporates uncertainties in future demand and costs. The design of a water supply plan is a concern with properties that are distinct from traditional approaches to the design of water distribution systems; namely, local engineering decisions concerning pipe diameters and water pressure are not explicitly modeled, but large-scale decisions concerning the construction of water conveyances (pipes, canals, and tunnels) and sources (desalination plants) are the focus in the model.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)223-234
Number of pages12
JournalJournal of Water Resources Planning and Management - ASCE
Volume139
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - 5 Jul 2013
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Bayesian statistics
  • Integer programming
  • Optimization under uncertainty
  • Water supply system design

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Water Science and Technology
  • Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law

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